ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Eagleloss 1:2series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eagle
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 2 games
Magnus
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Necrophosoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Pugna
Tz. · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
mercy · 1 game
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
193 picks · 80 bans
Grimstroke
189 picks · 213 bans
Pangolier
184 picks · 394 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Phoenix
162 picks · 219 bans
Earth Spirit
159 picks · 255 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Eagle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:17
Eagle 9%Invictus Gaming 91%
The model gave 91% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Eagle in 45:56.
Game 2prediction correct12:20
Eagle 9%Invictus Gaming 91%
The model gave 91% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 32:12.
Game 3prediction correct6:33
Eagle 9%Invictus Gaming 91%
The model gave 91% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 23:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 91%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3