?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Edgeloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Edge

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 4 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 4 games
50%
Slardar
Slardar
PiPi · 4 games
25%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
33%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Yadomi · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
payk · 3 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
50%

OG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 12 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 11 games
27%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 11 games
27%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 11 games
18%
Batrider
Batrider
Ari · 10 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nine · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
449 picks · 434 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 588 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
314 picks · 626 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
308 picks · 140 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
292 picks · 163 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
285 picks · 534 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
284 picks · 510 bans
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
283 picks · 563 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 24%
Hero pool strength53% Edge
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Edge
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:30
Edge 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Edge — the game was taken by Edge in 51:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinpayk
55% · 154 games49% · 99 games
Nature's ProphetShad
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
51% · 235 games46% · 161 game
TerrorbladeMikSa`
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaVitaly
48% · 135 games54% · 183 games
Monkey KingStormstormer
Monkey King
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYadomi
46% · 135 games50% · 162 games
WindrangerDaze
Windranger
Riki
RikiMichael
52% · 46 games50% · 100 games
RingmasterKidaro
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed22:23
Edge 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Edge — the game was taken by OG in 46:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinypayk
50% · 373 games43% · 113 games
MedusaShad
Medusa
Puck
PuckPiPi
48% · 224 games51% · 215 games
Monkey KingStormstormer
Monkey King
Brewmaster
BrewmasterVitaly
52% · 125 games51% · 207 games
Dark SeerMikSa`
Dark Seer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionYadomi
54% · 139 games51% · 337 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Windranger
WindrangerMichael
55% · 255 games44% · 244 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteEdge · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2