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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Edgeloss 0:2
series probability
3%97%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Edge

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 12 games
17%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 11 games
55%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 10 games
30%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Michael · 10 games
30%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
25%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 43 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
82%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
72%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 27 games
74%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 26 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 25 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 639 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
468 picks · 417 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
409 picks · 853 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
397 picks · 451 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 564 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
383 picks · 335 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 59%
Hero pool strength68% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
Edge 14%Tundra Esports 86%
The model gave 86% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaParker
48% · 122 games51% · 181 game
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierPiPi
44% · 369 games53% · 387 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterVitaly
45% · 257 games50% · 144 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Axe
AxePuppey
50% · 52 games57% · 267 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMichael
52% · 248 games49% · 69 games
UndyingWhitemon
Undying
Game 2prediction correct13:32
Edge 15%Tundra Esports 85%
The model gave 85% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
53% · 271 game50% · 218 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPiPi
52% · 156 games48% · 492 games
Beastmasterbzm
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierVitaly
47% · 371 game57% · 39 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMichael
57% · 323 games50% · 366 games
EnchantressWhitemon
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPuppey
53% · 185 games39% · 191 game
MarciSaksa
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 97%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2