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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Edgeloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Edge

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
20%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 5 games
20%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
0%
Slardar
Slardar
PiPi · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
33%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
天命 · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 18 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
zeal · 17 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 16 games
69%
Batrider
Batrider
BoBoKa · 15 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
493 picks · 491 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
407 picks · 560 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
370 picks · 174 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
284 picks · 541 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
268 picks · 374 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
260 picks · 144 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 515 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 150 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 44%
Hero pool strength61% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:38
Edge 31%Yakult Brothers 69%
The model gave 69% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 56:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinypayk
46% · 390 games49% · 176 games
Nature's Prophetflyfly
Nature's Prophet
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeVitaly
41% · 219 games53% · 393 games
Ember SpiritEmo
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPiPi
49% · 108 games54% · 292 games
Sand KingBEYOND
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroYadomi
45% · 354 games58% · 170 games
Ancient ApparitionBoBoKa
Ancient Apparition
Lion
LionMichael
50% · 101 game56% · 141 game
Shadow ShamanOli
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct4:22
Edge 33%Yakult Brothers 67%
The model gave 67% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 23:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpayk
47% · 186 games46% · 175 games
Nature's Prophetflyfly
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierVitaly
45% · 266 games57% · 423 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyPiPi
52% · 320 games44% · 205 games
MedusaBEYOND
Medusa
Bristleback
BristlebackYadomi
55% · 214 games51% · 136 games
Shadow ShamanBoBoKa
Shadow Shaman
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMichael
52% · 100 games50% · 147 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 79%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2