Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoyswin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
King Of Kingsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
King Of Kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
431 picks · 935 bans
Void Spirit
404 picks · 579 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 660 bans
Mars
333 picks · 580 bans
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 270 bans
Tusk
263 picks · 176 bans
Phoenix
253 picks · 373 bans
Grimstroke
249 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% EgoBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:7
EgoBoys 56%King Of Kings 44%
The model gave 56% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 21:52.
Game 2prediction missed12:30
EgoBoys 56%King Of Kings 44%
The model gave 56% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 30:55.
Game 3prediction missed37:15
EgoBoys 56%King Of Kings 44%
The model gave 56% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 35:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 56%
Series resultEgoBoys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3