Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoysloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Omega Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Omega Gaming
Tusk
Zxca · 4 games
Chaos Knight
Mingatte · 3 games
Dark Willow
Zxca · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Jeimari · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
Brewmaster
Oscar · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Jeimari · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
434 picks · 981 bans
Void Spirit
416 picks · 577 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 706 bans
Mars
344 picks · 596 bans
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 302 bans
Tusk
303 picks · 190 bans
Grimstroke
300 picks · 272 bans
Phoenix
264 picks · 406 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% EgoBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:34
EgoBoys 49%Omega Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 29:07.
Game 2prediction correct25:38
EgoBoys 49%Omega Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 30:58.
Game 3prediction correct29:14
EgoBoys 49%Omega Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 29:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 51%
Series resultOmega Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3