The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoysloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SG e-sportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
449 picks · 194 bans
Mars
391 picks · 583 bans
Puck
391 picks · 887 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
347 picks · 323 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 236 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 396 bans
Ancient Apparition
291 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% EgoBoys
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:31
EgoBoys 40%SG e-sports 60%
The model gave 60% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 24:58.
Game 2prediction correct31:11
EgoBoys 40%SG e-sports 60%
The model gave 60% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 29:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 60%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2