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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoysloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EgoBoys

No games played over 6 months.

Thunder Awaken

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Frank · 4 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
MoOz · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
MoOz · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 3 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Frank · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
259 picks · 535 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
236 picks · 295 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
216 picks · 385 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
201 picks · 158 bans
49%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
173 picks · 308 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
168 picks · 197 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
167 picks · 538 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
163 picks · 215 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:38
EgoBoys 42%Thunder Awaken 58%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 43:25.
Game 2prediction correct15:40
EgoBoys 42%Thunder Awaken 58%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 36:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 58%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2