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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
Frisk · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddon
xNova · 3 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 3 games
33%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 3 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
xNova · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Frisk · 3 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Chalice · 3 games
0%

Aster.Aries

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 5 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Fantasy · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
25%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 3 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
生死 · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
生死 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 748 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
332 picks · 441 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
285 picks · 503 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 219 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
242 picks · 384 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
237 picks · 137 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
223 picks · 469 bans
57%
Wraith King
Wraith King
219 picks · 314 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:11
EHOME 48%Aster.Aries 52%
The model gave 52% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by EHOME in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanXm
59% · 23 games42% · 28 games
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerChalice
44% · 20 games48% · 21 game
Queen of Painphoenix
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierFrisk
62% · 43 games49% · 61 game
Mars生死
Mars
Tusk
TuskxNova
48% · 33 games30% · 9 games
Spirit BreakerFantasy
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction missed22:7
EHOME 44%Aster.Aries 56%
The model gave 56% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by EHOME in 19:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorXm
54% · 12 games59% · 85 games
Death Prophetphoenix
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsChalice
46% · 112 games37% · 35 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFrisk
51% · 64 games49% · 84 games
Void Spirit生死
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
55% · 72 games47% · 56 games
OracleFantasy
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 58%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2