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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 20 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 16 games
44%
Bane
Bane
zzq · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 13 games
31%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
7e · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 8 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Echo · 8 games
38%

Aster.Aries

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
TK · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 7 games
71%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ulu · 6 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
生死 · 5 games
40%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
RedPanda · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
生死 · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 449 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
464 picks · 679 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 544 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
404 picks · 286 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 596 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 561 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 632 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 784 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:4
EHOME 51%Aster.Aries 49%
The model gave 51% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 22:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaEcho
49% · 138 games50% · 134 games
Phoenix生死
Phoenix
Monkey King
Monkey Kingshiro
51% · 168 games45% · 109 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Magnus
Magnuszeal
54% · 38 games46% · 315 games
PangolierXwy
Pangolier
Bane
BanepLAnet
57% · 183 games43% · 28 games
WarlockRedPanda
Warlock
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorzzq
52% · 116 games51% · 57 games
MarciTK
Marci
Game 2prediction missed
EHOME 53%Aster.Aries 47%
The model gave 53% on EHOME — the game was taken by Aster.Aries.
Game 3prediction correct39:43
EHOME 48%Aster.Aries 52%
The model gave 52% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 59:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistshiro
47% · 19 games50% · 67 games
Dawnbreaker生死
Dawnbreaker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEcho
52% · 231 game57% · 77 games
BloodseekerUlu
Bloodseeker
Magnus
Magnuszeal
48% · 49 games49% · 199 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokepLAnet
45% · 305 games51% · 69 games
BrewmasterTK
Brewmaster
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernzzq
42% · 80 games59% · 272 games
BaneRedPanda
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 53%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3