The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 11 games
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
pLAnet · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Echo · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
shiro · 6 games
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 6 games
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
731 picks · 571 bans
Puck
506 picks · 1022 bans
Dawnbreaker
488 picks · 646 bans
Marci
466 picks · 810 bans
Winter Wyvern
377 picks · 420 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
Razor
303 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 80%
Hero pool strength51% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:33
EHOME 61%CDEC Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on EHOME — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 37:10.
Game 2prediction missed12:28
EHOME 61%CDEC Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on EHOME — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 30:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 61%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2