Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Elephantwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Abaddon
xNova · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 3 games
Brewmaster
xNova · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 2 games
Earthshaker
Frisk · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
xNova · 2 games
Rubick
Frisk · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Chalice · 2 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
329 picks · 666 bans
Void Spirit
312 picks · 380 bans
Mars
262 picks · 460 bans
Earth Spirit
243 picks · 202 bans
Rubick
216 picks · 115 bans
Death Prophet
212 picks · 317 bans
Nyx Assassin
210 picks · 628 bans
Phoenix
210 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Elephant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:29
EHOME 41%Elephant 59%
The model gave 59% on Elephant — the game was taken by Elephant in 33:19.
Game 2prediction correct24:30
EHOME 41%Elephant 59%
The model gave 59% on Elephant — the game was taken by Elephant in 33:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 59%
Series resultElephant 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2