?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:3
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Elephantwin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 22 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 20 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 20 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 15 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 12 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 11 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Frisk · 11 games
55%

Elephant

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
488 picks · 197 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
384 picks · 210 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 598 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
360 picks · 882 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
332 picks · 311 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
327 picks · 248 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 458 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 589 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% EHOME
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total65% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:23
EHOME 65%Elephant 35%
The model gave 65% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 46:58.
Game 2prediction missed9:29
EHOME 65%Elephant 35%
The model gave 65% on EHOME — the game was taken by Elephant in 34:12.
Game 3prediction missed17:27
EHOME 65%Elephant 35%
The model gave 65% on EHOME — the game was taken by Elephant in 43:43.
Game 4prediction missed20:35
EHOME 65%Elephant 35%
The model gave 65% on EHOME — the game was taken by Elephant in 41:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 65%
Series resultElephant 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4