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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Frisk · 5 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Frisk · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddon
xNova · 3 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 3 games
33%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 3 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
xNova · 3 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Chalice · 3 games
0%

Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 754 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
335 picks · 450 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
289 picks · 509 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
263 picks · 222 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
249 picks · 390 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
237 picks · 138 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
225 picks · 476 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 671 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 79%
Hero pool strength54% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:38
EHOME 24%Invictus Gaming 76%
The model gave 76% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 34:48.
Game 2prediction missed32:24
EHOME 24%Invictus Gaming 76%
The model gave 76% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 37:32.
Game 3prediction missed35:25
EHOME 24%Invictus Gaming 76%
The model gave 76% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 41:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 76%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3