Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Linaoften banned
Night · 5 games
Marcioften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zzq · 4 games
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 4 games
Miranaoften banned
CatYou · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Echo · 3 games
Tiny
CatYou · 3 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
345 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
335 picks · 327 bans
Mirana
218 picks · 223 bans
Pangolier
215 picks · 540 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
205 picks · 114 bans
Leshrac
202 picks · 435 bans
Silencer
201 picks · 235 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:12
EHOME 41%Invictus Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 32:31.
Game 2prediction missed26:24
EHOME 41%Invictus Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 38:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 59%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2