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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Frisk · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 4 games
25%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Frisk · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddon
xNova · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Frisk · 3 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
xNova · 3 games
100%

LBZS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 8 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 5 games
20%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 5 games
20%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 4 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xiaofu · 3 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
MS · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
375 picks · 781 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
347 picks · 465 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
298 picks · 522 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 226 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
265 picks · 412 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
244 picks · 145 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
233 picks · 485 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
228 picks · 331 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 31%
Hero pool strength51% LBZS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
EHOME 57%LBZS 43%
The model gave 57% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawChalice
40% · 30 games66% · 28 games
IoMS
Io
Riki
RikiSylar
39% · 14 games64% · 10 games
Slardarxiaofu
Slardar
Pugna
PugnaXm
47% · 7 games50% · 40 games
RubickCatYou
Rubick
Pangolier
PangolierFrisk
51% · 29 games47% · 17 games
Elder TitanRoddgeee
Elder Titan
Lion
LionxNova
44% · 15 games
Game 2prediction correct30:5
EHOME 60%LBZS 40%
The model gave 60% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 26:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSylar
47% · 30 games44% · 5 games
GyrocopterMS
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
54% · 7 games38% · 15 games
Brewmasterxiaofu
Brewmaster
Lycan
LycanChalice
53% · 14 games50% · 47 games
Shadow ShamanCatYou
Shadow Shaman
Pangolier
PangolierFrisk
50% · 28 games57% · 22 games
IoRoddgeee
Io
Disruptor
DisruptorxNova
59% · 10 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 67%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2