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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Frisk · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
xNova · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Sylar · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 4 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xm · 4 games
75%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Xm · 3 games
100%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
xNova · 3 games
33%
Axe
Axe
Chalice · 2 games
50%

Phoenix Gaming

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
shiro · 3 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
pLAnet · 2 games
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
pLAnet · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
zzq · 2 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Xwy · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddon
zzq · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 529 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
348 picks · 256 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
314 picks · 716 bans
57%
Io
Io
239 picks · 577 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
234 picks · 154 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
233 picks · 719 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
232 picks · 313 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% EHOME
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
EHOME 54%Phoenix Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
39% · 196 games52% · 122 games
LunaM77
Luna
Razor
Razor7e
51% · 157 games44% · 233 games
Marszone-
Mars
Visage
Visagezeal
45% · 15 games49% · 120 games
Death ProphetShining
Death Prophet
Earthshaker
EarthshakerpLAnet
55% · 115 games57% · 99 games
MiranaHelios
Mirana
Bane
Banezzq
53% · 164 games53% · 73 games
Elder TitanLwwnb
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct40:16
EHOME 52%Phoenix Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 35:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
44% · 151 game57% · 158 games
Templar Assassinzone-
Templar Assassin
Lina
Lina7e
49% · 205 games49% · 182 games
BloodseekerM77
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
48% · 270 games55% · 219 games
Death ProphetShining
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
41% · 208 games56% · 150 games
DisruptorLwwnb
Disruptor
Bane
Banezzq
52% · 129 games48% · 254 games
Nyx AssassinHelios
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 58%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2