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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 8 games
100%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 7 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 7 games
86%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Sylar · 6 games
83%

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
440 picks · 969 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
418 picks · 586 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 680 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 598 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 284 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
278 picks · 180 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 230 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
266 picks · 386 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength59% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:27
EHOME 58%Royal Never Give Up 42%
The model gave 58% on EHOME — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 36:21.
Game 2prediction correct21:22
EHOME 58%Royal Never Give Up 42%
The model gave 58% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 32:52.
Game 3prediction correct29:13
EHOME 58%Royal Never Give Up 42%
The model gave 58% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 41:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 58%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3