The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shenzhenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 11 games
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
pLAnet · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Echo · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
shiro · 6 games
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 6 games
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
725 picks · 572 bans
Puck
505 picks · 1021 bans
Dawnbreaker
492 picks · 653 bans
Marci
476 picks · 816 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 421 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 392 bans
Razor
304 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Shenzhen
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:30
EHOME 67%Shenzhen 33%
The model gave 67% on EHOME — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 47:20.
Game 2prediction missed12:24
EHOME 67%Shenzhen 33%
The model gave 67% on EHOME — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 44:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 67%
Series resultShenzhen 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2