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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 20 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 19 games
26%
Rubick
Rubick
CatYou · 17 games
41%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 13 games
38%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 11 games
36%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Night · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Lwwnb · 10 games
50%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 24 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 19 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 14 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 13 games
77%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 13 games
85%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
741 picks · 465 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
613 picks · 555 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
579 picks · 462 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
523 picks · 578 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
403 picks · 237 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 385 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
382 picks · 563 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
378 picks · 585 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:26
EHOME 28%Talon Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 19:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doommks-
43% · 239 games53% · 244 games
Nature's ProphetJabz
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
Timbersawxiaoyu154
46% · 168 games52% · 176 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Batrider
BatriderNight
54% · 288 games52% · 201 game
PuckMikoto
Puck
Silencer
SilencerLwwnb
43% · 147 games55% · 605 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Tusk
TuskCatYou
53% · 448 games47% · 64 games
OmniknightOli
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct12:25
EHOME 29%Talon Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetmks-
49% · 263 games55% · 230 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Doom
Doomxiaoyu154
45% · 236 games48% · 274 games
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierNight
46% · 471 game54% · 221 game
EnigmaJabz
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireCatYou
47% · 494 games49% · 733 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLwwnb
54% · 329 games52% · 335 games
UndyingOli
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 83%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2