Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Bane
zzq · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 7 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
zzq · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
zzq · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
zeal · 3 games
Team Aster
Banesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Snapfire
Fantasy · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 18 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 17 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
Linasignature
Ori · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
543 picks · 390 bans
Queen of Pain
453 picks · 554 bans
Mars
452 picks · 652 bans
Weaver
434 picks · 853 bans
Snapfire
353 picks · 184 bans
Spirit Breaker
345 picks · 562 bans
Kunkka
340 picks · 543 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total74% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:29
EHOME 37%Team Aster 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by EHOME in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingshiro
Storm SpiritOri
Pangolier7e
Monkey KingMonet
Night Stalkerzeal
PhoenixXxs
MiranapLAnet
SnapfireFantasy
Banezzq
TuskBoBoKa
Game 2prediction correct27:32
EHOME 37%Team Aster 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin7e
Phantom AssassinMonet
Kunkkashiro
LinaOri
Pangolierzeal
Dark SeerXxs
RubickpLAnet
Monkey KingBoBoKa
Banezzq
SnapfireFantasy
Game 3prediction correct30:39
EHOME 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingshiro
Phantom AssassinMonet
Batrider7e
PangolierXxs
Kunkkazeal
MagnusOri
Earth SpiritpLAnet
IoBoBoKa
Ancient Apparitionzzq
SnapfireFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 74%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3