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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Bane
Bane
zzq · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 13 games
46%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 8 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
shiro · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
7e · 7 games
29%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 7 games
57%

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 24 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 20 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fantasy · 20 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 17 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 261 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 551 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
329 picks · 379 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
327 picks · 642 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
294 picks · 363 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 416 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
273 picks · 344 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
263 picks · 430 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 61%
Hero pool strength59% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total75% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:29
EHOME 34%Team Aster 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyshiro
48% · 296 games61% · 249 games
Templar AssassinMonet
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckEcho
43% · 320 games51% · 239 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
54% · 114 games51% · 48 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Sand King
Sand Kingzeal
51% · 174 games51% · 186 games
Nyx AssassinBoBoKa
Nyx Assassin
Pugna
Pugnazzq
44% · 42 games45% · 224 games
GrimstrokeFantasy
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed30:17
EHOME 39%Team Aster 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by EHOME in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
58% · 161 game39% · 10 games
AlchemistMonet
Alchemist
Sand King
Sand KingEcho
51% · 195 games51% · 152 games
KunkkaOri
Kunkka
Timbersaw
Timbersawzeal
45% · 103 games45% · 246 games
Death ProphetXxs
Death Prophet
Lina
LinapLAnet
48% · 235 games47% · 90 games
TuskBoBoKa
Tusk
Pugna
Pugnazzq
42% · 53 games60% · 249 games
BaneFantasy
Bane
Game 3prediction missed41:15
EHOME 35%Team Aster 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Aster — the game was taken by EHOME in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
56% · 230 games47% · 68 games
Phantom AssassinMonet
Phantom Assassin
Sand King
Sand Kingzeal
53% · 180 games49% · 154 games
Dragon KnightXxs
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderEcho
47% · 121 game54% · 182 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
52% · 87 games52% · 87 games
PhoenixBoBoKa
Phoenix
Pugna
Pugnazzq
43% · 53 games44% · 180 games
GrimstrokeFantasy
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 75%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3