Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 20 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 16 games
Bane
zzq · 15 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 13 games
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
7e · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
shiro · 8 games
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 8 games
Team Aster
Banesignature
Fantasy · 27 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 21 game
Snapfire
Fantasy · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 439 bans
Mars
480 picks · 699 bans
Bane
451 picks · 296 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 536 bans
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 611 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 609 bans
Sand King
366 picks · 527 bans
Keeper of the Light
345 picks · 767 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total56% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 56%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect