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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 17 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
CatYou · 14 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 13 games
38%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 10 games
30%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Night · 10 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Lwwnb · 9 games
56%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
25%
Marci
Marcisignature
Timado · 8 games
63%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 7 games
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Whitemon · 7 games
71%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
DuBu · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
721 picks · 457 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
605 picks · 549 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 454 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
508 picks · 567 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 386 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 228 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
369 picks · 539 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 570 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:44
EHOME 34%TSM 66%
The model gave 66% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weavermks-
46% · 102 games50% · 111 games
SniperTimado
Sniper
Beastmaster
Beastmasterxiaoyu154
53% · 278 games57% · 206 games
Batriderbryle-
Batrider
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNight
43% · 172 games60% · 288 games
Enigmakasane
Enigma
Rubick
RubickCatYou
47% · 424 games42% · 361 game
SnapfireAri
Snapfire
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerLwwnb
47% · 216 games55% · 226 games
UndyingWhitemon
Undying
Game 2prediction correct8:27
EHOME 32%TSM 68%
The model gave 68% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 23:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNight
39% · 110 games53% · 286 games
LinaTimado
Lina
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendmks-
46% · 178 games54% · 102 games
Zeusbryle-
Zeus
Magnus
Magnusxiaoyu154
51% · 89 games52% · 337 games
Death Prophetkasane
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickCatYou
49% · 453 games53% · 149 games
Primal BeastAri
Primal Beast
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLwwnb
50% · 279 games53% · 235 games
UndyingWhitemon
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 79%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2