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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Bane
Bane
zzq · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 13 games
46%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 8 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
shiro · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
7e · 7 games
29%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 7 games
57%

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Victoria · 17 games
41%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 12 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 11 games
18%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yds · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 10 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Yds · 10 games
40%
Bane
Bane
Victoria · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
438 picks · 265 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
410 picks · 543 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
361 picks · 419 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
338 picks · 685 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 443 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
299 picks · 392 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
272 picks · 320 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
256 picks · 393 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% EHOME
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total54% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:20
EHOME 49%Vici Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
49% · 245 games50% · 279 games
Tinypoyoyo
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEcho
46% · 222 games52% · 196 games
Dragon KnightYang
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
55% · 257 games49% · 289 games
PuckXm
Puck
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
48% · 138 games55% · 231 game
MiranaYds
Mirana
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonzzq
50% · 190 games44% · 57 games
PugnaVictoria
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct36:31
EHOME 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
47% · 115 games51% · 235 games
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaEcho
52% · 155 games47% · 244 games
PuckXm
Puck
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
56% · 163 games48% · 99 games
Dark SeerYang
Dark Seer
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
55% · 165 games48% · 115 games
Earth SpiritYds
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonzzq
51% · 152 games42% · 57 games
PugnaVictoria
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct9:25
EHOME 49%Vici Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
54% · 215 games47% · 93 games
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
Tusk
TuskEcho
51% · 96 games48% · 210 games
Dragon KnightYang
Dragon Knight
Mars
Marszeal
50% · 455 games54% · 196 games
InvokerXm
Invoker
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
48% · 82 games49% · 265 games
GrimstrokeYds
Grimstroke
Pugna
Pugnazzq
47% · 62 games51% · 146 games
ClockwerkVictoria
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 54%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3