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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 16 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 11 games
27%
Bane
Bane
zzq · 10 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Echo · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 8 games
25%

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Victoria · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tinysignature
poyoyo · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Victoria · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 9 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Victoria · 8 games
25%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Xm · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 463 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
433 picks · 673 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 529 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
390 picks · 261 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 852 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 640 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 559 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 161 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:36
EHOME 46%Vici Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:45.
Game 2prediction missed
EHOME 46%Vici Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 54%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2