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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lwwnb · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Night · 9 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
14%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
CatYou · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Lwwnb · 5 games
20%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Night · 5 games
80%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 19 games
74%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
lou · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lou · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Paparazi · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
427 picks · 433 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
421 picks · 280 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 390 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
313 picks · 318 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
276 picks · 329 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
251 picks · 133 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 596 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
223 picks · 157 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total68% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:13
EHOME 40%Xtreme Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linamks-
46% · 112 games55% · 158 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmasterxiaoyu154
53% · 153 games54% · 97 games
BroodmotherJT-
Broodmother
Pangolier
PangolierNight
46% · 267 games46% · 156 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Techies
TechiesCatYou
42% · 35 games45% · 28 games
LionPyw
Lion
Disruptor
DisruptorLwwnb
55% · 130 games53% · 258 games
BaneDy
Bane
Game 2prediction missed43:30
EHOME 40%Xtreme Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidmks-
52% · 196 games47% · 158 games
DoomJT-
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierNight
54% · 399 games51% · 152 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Magnus
Magnusxiaoyu154
48% · 61 game49% · 516 games
TinyPaparazi
Tiny
Rubick
RubickCatYou
52% · 351 game49% · 263 games
MarciPyw
Marci
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLwwnb
52% · 241 game44% · 159 games
EnchantressDy
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 68%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2