Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Electronic Boysloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Electronic Boys
Grimstroke
albinozebra · 5 games
Ogre Magi
albinozebra · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Speeed · 4 games
Clockwerk
b1kA · 3 games
Bane
albinozebra · 2 games
Dark Willow
b1kA · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
murd0c · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Oklahoma · 2 games
5RATFORCESTAFF
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
Bane
Overlom · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
TingleK1ng · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 2 games
Ogre Magi
Ekki · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
370 picks · 546 bans
Bane
336 picks · 261 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
316 picks · 714 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 758 bans
Tidehunter
247 picks · 382 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 154 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 73%
Hero pool strength64% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:43
Electronic Boys 35%5RATFORCESTAFF 65%
The model gave 65% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectremurd0c
LunaITALIANO GANGSTA
Queen of PainOklahoma
Ember Spiritred2
Outworld DestroyerSpeeed
Legion CommanderTingleK1ng
Clockwerkb1kA
Snapfirebgod
Grimstrokealbinozebra
BaneOverlom
Game 2prediction missed46:26
Electronic Boys 35%5RATFORCESTAFF 65%
The model gave 65% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingmurd0c
LunaITALIANO GANGSTA
Templar AssassinOklahoma
Storm Spiritred2
MarsSpeeed
DoomTingleK1ng
Dark Willowb1kA
Hoodwinkbgod
Weaveralbinozebra
BaneOverlom
Game 3prediction correct22:41
Electronic Boys 33%5RATFORCESTAFF 67%
The model gave 67% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendmurd0c
SvenITALIANO GANGSTA
LinaOklahoma
Outworld Destroyerred2
MarsSpeeed
TimbersawTingleK1ng
Dark Willowb1kA
Snapfirebgod
Jakiroalbinozebra
BaneOverlom
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 77%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3