Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Electronic Boysloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Electronic Boys
Witch Doctor
albinozebra · 7 games
Jakiro
albinozebra · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Speeed · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Giant · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
albinozebra · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Giant · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
288 picks · 578 bans
Void Spirit
258 picks · 327 bans
Mars
230 picks · 406 bans
Earth Spirit
214 picks · 170 bans
Keeper of the Light
187 picks · 343 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 575 bans
Wraith King
181 picks · 238 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:44
Electronic Boys 32%Arkosh Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 1:01:41.
Game 2prediction correct
Electronic Boys 32%Arkosh Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 68%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2