PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
elegialoss 0:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Alone in Junglewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
elegia
Marcioften banned
kreker · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
LenS · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
LenS · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Ogre Magi
kreker · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
mangekyou · 1 game
Alone in Jungle
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
417 picks · 350 bans
Hoodwink
409 picks · 450 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
379 picks · 872 bans
Phoenix
358 picks · 749 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 516 bans
Clockwerk
332 picks · 502 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Alone in Jungle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% elegia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
elegia 53%Alone in Jungle 47%
The model gave 53% on elegia — the game was taken by Alone in Jungle.
Model check result
Model favoriteelegia · 53%
Series resultAlone in Jungle 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1