The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
311 picks · 174 bans
Lina
283 picks · 539 bans
Mars
280 picks · 406 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 97 bans
Pangolier
262 picks · 373 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
231 picks · 326 bans
Tidehunter
209 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 25%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:23
Elephant 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on Elephant — the game was taken by beastcoast in 40:49.
Game 2prediction missed37:18
Elephant 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on Elephant — the game was taken by beastcoast in 40:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 63%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2