OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO5
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 0:3series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:3
LGD Gamingwin 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 24 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 20 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 193 bans
Hoodwink
350 picks · 136 bans
Nyx Assassin
307 picks · 628 bans
Puck
301 picks · 672 bans
Ancient Apparition
289 picks · 458 bans
Mars
284 picks · 504 bans
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 356 bans
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 225 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 68%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total73% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:26
Elephant 27%LGD Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:55.
Game 2prediction correct36:18
Elephant 27%LGD Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:53.
Game 3prediction correct15:28
Elephant 27%LGD Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 73%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3