Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
433 picks · 988 bans
Void Spirit
412 picks · 575 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 710 bans
Mars
351 picks · 591 bans
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 309 bans
Grimstroke
306 picks · 288 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 205 bans
Pangolier
256 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:25
Elephant 59%Royal Never Give Up 41%
The model gave 59% on Elephant — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 57:41.
Game 2prediction missed28:34
Elephant 59%Royal Never Give Up 41%
The model gave 59% on Elephant — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 1:05:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 59%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2