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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Elephant

No games played over 6 months.

Team Aster

Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 16 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddon
LaNm · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
80%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 10 games
70%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 950 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
371 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 702 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 548 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
317 picks · 320 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
288 picks · 160 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 278 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total67% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:18
Elephant 33%Team Aster 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 46:17.
Game 2prediction correct11:23
Elephant 33%Team Aster 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:42.
Game 3prediction correct33:21
Elephant 33%Team Aster 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 45:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 67%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3