i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
435 picks · 958 bans
Void Spirit
414 picks · 584 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 674 bans
Mars
336 picks · 592 bans
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 280 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 180 bans
Phoenix
262 picks · 380 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 35%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:22
Elephant 68%Team MagMa 32%
The model gave 68% on Elephant — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 52:22.
Game 2prediction missed24:33
Elephant 68%Team MagMa 32%
The model gave 68% on Elephant — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 34:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 68%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2