The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 29 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Lionsignature
Mira · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 176 bans
Lina
284 picks · 537 bans
Mars
283 picks · 400 bans
Hoodwink
260 picks · 89 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 374 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 260 bans
Luna
227 picks · 324 bans
Tidehunter
224 picks · 379 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:27
Elephant 30%Team Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:06.
Game 2prediction correct10:31
Elephant 30%Team Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2