FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 6 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 6 games
Brewmaster
Dy · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
ELeVeN · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Earthshaker
Pyw · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
355 picks · 744 bans
Void Spirit
331 picks · 438 bans
Mars
284 picks · 503 bans
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 219 bans
Death Prophet
242 picks · 380 bans
Rubick
236 picks · 137 bans
Keeper of the Light
222 picks · 468 bans
Wraith King
218 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:15
Elephant 40%Vici Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:37.
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Elephant 40%Vici Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 35:28.
Game 3prediction correct32:41
Elephant 40%Vici Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 44:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 60%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3