i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 1:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 14 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Dy · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 1016 bans
Mars
369 picks · 596 bans
Lion
355 picks · 184 bans
Grimstroke
352 picks · 359 bans
Void Spirit
331 picks · 517 bans
Death Prophet
319 picks · 701 bans
Tusk
310 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 286 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength61% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total75% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:49
Elephant 25%Vici Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 1:04:14.
Game 2prediction correct18:34
Elephant 25%Vici Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 36:07.
Game 3prediction correct18:29
Elephant 25%Vici Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 31:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 75%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3