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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Elevate Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Elevate Gaming

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Karma丶 · 2 games
0%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Boomy · 2 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
MamangDaya · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dalul · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Boomy · 1 game
0%
Io
Iooften banned
Boomy · 1 game
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
0%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 14 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 10 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 704 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 616 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 393 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
411 picks · 753 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 749 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1043 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Elevate Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
Elevate Gaming 31%Nigma Galaxy 69%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 19273:09:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingMamangDaya
53% · 7 games54% · 41 game
UrsaMiracle-
Ursa
Slark
SlarkKarma丶
64% · 86 games41% · 131 game
WindrangerSumaiL
Windranger
Tiny
Tinydalul
47% · 201 game45% · 124 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenBoomy
55% · 149 games52% · 34 games
VenomancerKuroKy
Venomancer
41% · 113 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct20:37
Elevate Gaming 31%Nigma Galaxy 69%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKarma丶
60% · 130 games53% · 82 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Sand King
Sand KingMamangDaya
50% · 4 games32% · 90 games
Vengeful SpiritMiracle-
Vengeful Spirit
Mirana
MiranaBoomy
56% · 114 games45% · 107 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demondalul
52% · 234 games42% · 112 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
51% · 91 game
DisruptorKuroKy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 82%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2