Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs predictionEGEMS Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
WWWarm Wine Cutwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EMS Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Warm Wine Cut
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
461 picks · 493 bans
Bane
438 picks · 265 bans
Sand King
422 picks · 555 bans
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 603 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 420 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 533 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 803 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% EMS Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% EMS Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
EMS Gaming 52%Warm Wine Cut 48%
The model gave 52% on EMS Gaming — the game was taken by Warm Wine Cut.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMS Gaming · 52%
Series resultWarm Wine Cut 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1