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European Pro League Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
End Gameloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

End Game

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 5 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
W1sh- · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
Nande · 2 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
W1sh- · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
50%
Axe
Axe
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
0%

Hydra

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 7 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 803 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 290 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
430 picks · 823 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
411 picks · 642 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 857 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
382 picks · 340 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
381 picks · 1004 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 508 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
End Game 42%Hydra 58%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Game 2prediction correct
End Game 42%Hydra 58%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 58%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2