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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

No games played over 6 months.

Evil Geniuses

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
Wij · 5 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
695 picks · 507 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
496 picks · 986 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
407 picks · 520 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 197 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
376 picks · 684 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
324 picks · 309 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 519 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
299 picks · 631 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:6
Entity 62%Evil Geniuses 38%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 33:20.
Game 2prediction missed9:29
Entity 62%Evil Geniuses 38%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 30:56.
Game 3prediction missed28:6
Entity 62%Evil Geniuses 38%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 30:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 62%
Series resultEntity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3