Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Gaimin Gladiators
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 26 games
Bane
tOfu · 22 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 21 game
Weaveroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
Marssignature
Ace · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 18 games
Grimstroke
tOfu · 17 games
Tinysignature
BOOM · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
563 picks · 462 bans
Mars
438 picks · 674 bans
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 529 bans
Bane
393 picks · 268 bans
Puck
368 picks · 838 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 564 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 638 bans
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total53% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:11
Entity 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:17.
Game 2prediction correct36:22
Entity 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:00.
Game 3prediction correct29:25
Entity 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 53%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3