DreamLeague Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:1series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 46 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 41 game
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 38 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 38 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 36 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 35 games
Disruptorsignature
Seleri · 34 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 31 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
355 picks · 174 bans
Ember Spirit
270 picks · 368 bans
Batrider
218 picks · 308 bans
Storm Spirit
218 picks · 347 bans
Pangolier
217 picks · 439 bans
Undying
216 picks · 385 bans
Dark Seer
213 picks · 406 bans
Beastmaster
206 picks · 456 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 7
Model total85% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:37
Entity 15%Gaimin Gladiators 85%
The model gave 85% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 47:33.
Game 2prediction correct38:13
Entity 15%Gaimin Gladiators 85%
The model gave 85% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 38:19.
Game 3prediction correct38:57
Entity 15%Gaimin Gladiators 85%
The model gave 85% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:15:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 85%
Series resultEntity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3