Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ghost frogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Ghost frogs
Dragon Knight
Tobi · 2 games
Mirana
MiLAN · 2 games
Snapfire
Nukkumatti · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ulnit · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
j4 · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Tobi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
318 picks · 445 bans
Monkey King
275 picks · 686 bans
Bane
273 picks · 210 bans
Tidehunter
262 picks · 402 bans
Weaver
248 picks · 529 bans
Snapfire
247 picks · 136 bans
Void Spirit
213 picks · 241 bans
Lion
209 picks · 101 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Entity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:26
Entity 73%Ghost frogs 27%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 25:33.
Game 2prediction missed22:47
Entity 73%Ghost frogs 27%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 38:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 73%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2