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1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO1
result vs prediction
Entitywin 1:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MOUZloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

No games played over 6 months.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 6 games
67%
Bane
Bane
bengan · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 5 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 573 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 528 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
346 picks · 269 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 336 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 662 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
316 picks · 190 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
304 picks · 311 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:7
Entity 71%MOUZ 29%
The model gave 71% on Entity — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 71%
Series resultEntity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1