ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere Junior
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 22 games
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
Vengeful Spirit
pma · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
Snapfire
Daze · 16 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 477 bans
Phoenix
280 picks · 424 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 447 bans
Lion
262 picks · 233 bans
Vengeful Spirit
257 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 340 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 706 bans
Magnus
239 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:8
Entity 78%Natus Vincere Junior 22%
The model gave 78% on Entity — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 27:41.
Game 2prediction missed15:31
Entity 78%Natus Vincere Junior 22%
The model gave 78% on Entity — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 35:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 78%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2