The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 34 games
Rubick
Ari · 29 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 26 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
444 picks · 679 bans
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 424 bans
Crystal Maiden
394 picks · 181 bans
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 522 bans
Rubick
338 picks · 167 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 632 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 544 bans
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 788 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total61% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:41
Entity 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Entity — the game was taken by OG in 40:05.
Game 2prediction missed40:19
Entity 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Entity — the game was taken by OG in 41:33.
Game 3prediction missed31:34
Entity 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Entity — the game was taken by OG in 52:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 61%
Series resultEntity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3