ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
720 picks · 539 bans
Puck
510 picks · 1020 bans
Dawnbreaker
447 picks · 565 bans
Marci
424 picks · 754 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
350 picks · 375 bans
Zeus
315 picks · 360 bans
Razor
304 picks · 613 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:27
Entity 71%Talon Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Entity — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:54.
Game 2prediction missed43:11
Entity 71%Talon Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Entity — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 71%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2