PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 12 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ori · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
651 picks · 476 bans
Puck
456 picks · 972 bans
Dawnbreaker
382 picks · 466 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 190 bans
Mars
342 picks · 562 bans
Marci
339 picks · 657 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 429 bans
Ember Spirit
305 picks · 591 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:27
Entity 52%Team Aster 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Aster in 47:00.
Game 2prediction missed18:37
Entity 52%Team Aster 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 52%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2